Key Competitive Race

Key competitive races are contests that either party stands a realistic chance of winning and whose outcome can tip the balance of power for an important office, court, or legislative body.

We focus on races that we deem to be critical to upholding a functioning democracy. Therefore, we prioritize programs for presidential, senatorial, and congressional races that can tip the balance of power in the federal government. We also recommend programs impacting gubernatorial, state supreme court, secretary of state, and state legislative races in battleground states, when those offices influence voting rights and their state’s presidential slate of electors. We generally do not make recommendations for primary elections.

Examples of key targeted races:

  • Biden’s 2020 win in Wisconsin tipped the presidential electoral count to over 270

  • Jon Ossoff’s election in 2021 tipped control of the Senate to the Democrats

  • The 2022 state legislative races in Michigan flipped the state House and state Senate to Democratic majorities.

We give special emphasis to “nested races,” where adding a vote or voter for one office can add votes to key races up and down the ballot.

We do not recommend funding races when one of the candidates is nearly certain to win.

Nesting Dolls Strategy

All else being equal, we look for races that are geographically situated so that gaining a new voter can have impacts on several key races up and down the ballot. These are called “nested” races or the “Nesting dolls strategy.”

For example, in Arizona in 2022 in Legislative District 4, a new voter could cast a vote:

  1. for an important State Senate seat

  2. in a critical Secretary of State race

  3. in a key Governor’s race and

  4. in a critical Senate race

Because most voters choose the same party up and down the ballot, a new Democratic voter in this district would cast a vote in 4 important races.